Navigating Economic Shifts: 2025 Mid-Year Investment Outlook As we reflect on the first half of 2025, it's clear we've been navigating through significant economic policy shifts and heightened market volatility. Early in the year, investor confidence faced substantial tests, underscored by sharp market reactions in April following sweeping legislative changes [...]

Markets blaze ahead Key Observations Markets Advance in June – Despite geopolitical tensions and mixed policy signals, stocks powered higher with technology and industrials leading performance while small caps lagged. International Leads the Year – Robust local performance and a weakening U.S. dollar has buoyed returns in markets abroad. When [...]

A brief review of Fed Independence Key Observations Markets Warm with the Weather – May brought a more constructive tone as trade tensions eased, lifting sentiment and encouraging a rebound in risk assets. Fixed Income Buyers Remain Cold – While equities priced in potential fiscal stimulus, bond markets focused on [...]

Trade policy shockwaves are just beginning to reverberate Key Observations Tariff Escalation Raises Recession Risk – U.S. tariffs, despite a temporary pause, have intensified global trade tensions. Without policy offsets, the economic drag increases the likelihood of recession. Markets briefly rallied on tariff delays but remain vulnerable to policy uncertainty. [...]

Investors rotate toward certainty as President Trump seeks to reshape the economy Key Observations S. Equity Selloff – The S&P 500 fell -5.6% in March and -4.3% for the quarter, its worst since 2022, as stretched valuations and concentrated leadership fueled volatility. Mag Drag – Despite 61% of securities posting [...]

High valuations come with high expectations. U.S. equity markets step back on growth concerns. Key Observations Growth Scare Hits Risk Assets – Weaker economic data, a patient Fed and shifting policy dynamics fueled slowdown fears triggering a broad selloff of U.S. equities, with defensive sectors outperforming. Growth Puts Spotlight on [...]

Key Observations Full valuations, concentrated U.S. large-cap indexes and the risk of reigniting inflation are shaping the key themes we believe will drive markets and portfolio positioning in 2025. Recent market successes have pushed our 2025 10-year forecasts lower across most major asset classes. Long-term return premium for equities over [...]

Key Observations The end of election season fueled a rally in the U.S. equity markets in anticipation of pro-business policies such as potential deregulation and tax cuts. The U.S. dollar appreciated, reflecting expectations of inflationary fiscal policies and potential shifts in Federal Reserve actions. The Federal Reserve and Bank of [...]

October leaves markets in the red amid an otherwise upbeat year   Key Observations Despite a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, rising inflation concerns and a cooling labor market overshadowed optimism, leading to a cautious market environment in October. While October brought challenges, year-to-date returns remain strong, highlighting underlying [...]